MLS 2009 Attendance stats final week

Seven months. Fifteen teams. Eight playoff spots. Two conferences. One winner. As it stands, Columbus, Houston and LA are the teams to beat in the MLS playoffs. I'm not crazy about the system that's in place but I understand it and enjoy it all the same. This was a transition year. A transition because the Beckham experiment unraveled. Also because the Seattle Sounders showed the large support there is for the game in the Pacific Northwest (Portland and Vancouver are the expansion teams in 2011). And finally, it was a transition year because the biggest markets also had the worst attendance records.

I will let the figures on the right column speak for themselves, but I offer some final thoughts for this MLS attendance season.

The winners:

• Seattle, Houston, Salt Lake, Toronto. Houston and Salt Lake City both saw small improvements in attendance relevant to last season. I could say the same for San Jose, but their numbers (and some other clubs as well) were lifted by doubleheaders with much more flair (Chivas Guadalajara at the Candlestick Park). Seattle has the attendance record in MLS with a whopping 30897. The others in this group made only small gains relative to 2008, but this highlights the stability of the fan base.

• Columbus, Chivas USA, Kansas City and even FC Dallas didn't lose an appreciable amount of attendance, which suggests a stable fan base. All have respectable numbers as well, although much can be done about Dallas. Their doubleheader with a Mexico match upped their numbers considerably.

The losers:

• LA, New York, DC, Chicago, New England, Colorado. It should jump out at first glance that the worst losses are in the four biggest markets. Indeed, LA saw a sharp decrease partly in response to Mr "Goldenballs" and his parade from LA to Milan and back again. He redeemed himself on the pitch, though. I give him that much.

• New York was almost always slow this season, partly due to J.C. Osorio's management, and also partly due to the inhospitable Giants Stadium environment. With the Red Bull Arena to be operational by next March, we could see a resurgence in fan appreciation for the team and perhaps more inspired play by its stars.

• DC United, on the other hand, saw above average attendance relative to the rest of the league but the fans were less than inspired by the players, the stadium, and international competition. Chicago seems to have leveled out now that the Cuauteminha isn't a fad anymore. New England, on the other hand, suffer from a terrible stadium situation, lousy management, and general lack of spark on the pitch. This reflected on the stands. As for Colorado, I'm not sure I have much to elaborate with.

A final look at the distribution of general attendance shows the clear winners in Toronto FC and Seattle, the strength (even though diminished) of big markets like DC and LA. Dallas and Colorado clearly need improvement... and don't let the stadium size factor fool you... just look at all the figures in terms of average, relative and median attendance.

MLS 2009 Attendance stats week 30

Back to club business. MLS has seen its share of ups and downs lately. From DCU's inability to win important wins at home, to an FC Dallas that suddenly has a last playoff berth in sight with the aid of the resurging Cunningham. In the stands, Chivas has lost its momentum while Salt Lake, Dallas, New England have seen important gains that bring them at least level with last year's numbers. With the closing of the season next week, it looks like some of the numbers we have will stand as they are.

A closer examination with the aid of the figure 2009-2007 we can see the pre-post Beckham effect. His influence felt late in 2007 and died down in 2009 after the AC Milan soap opera. This year, it's Seattle and Toronto that make the difference. Indeed, dropping Seattle and Toronto from the average places the average season attendance to 14411 from 15895. Plenty of things to consider before 2010 and Philadelphia's introduction. Will we see more of the same? Will Seattle's attendance tumble out of the honeymoon phase? Only time will tell. Again, all stats are derived from MLS official numbers and the graphics are in the right column of this page.

MLS 2009 Attendance stats weeks 28 & 29

Back to the stats. Figures are on the right column. Not going too much in depth this week. Most markets are up, including Chicago, New England and Columbus. It's hard to watch the games with the football lines still on the pitch, though. I'm enjoying the new soccer-specific venues. Up next year are the Red Bull's Red Bull Arena which is opening in Harrison, NJ, and the new soccer stadium in Chester, PA for the Philadelphia Union.

I read an interesting tidbit the other day regarding TV ratings for MLS... at least from the ESPN perspective. Looks like some of us out there were being entirely too negative about MLS on TV. It seems that the audience has gone up for the world-wide leader in sports by 7-10%. This is after the execs decided to scrub the "MLS Primetime Thursdays" slot for the "MLS Game of the Week." Smart. Also, ESPN's loss of the UEFA Champions League may be a blessing in disguise since the Spanish La Liga and the English EPL are during the weekend. This has opened up quality soccer for everyone that was at work or school on weekdays. A side effect? More MLS viewers.

MLS 2009 Attendance stats week 26 & 27

And we're back from international play. Whilst some of our ambassadors abroad are struggling for playing time (Onyewu, Bradley, even Adu again), and others are making their mark (Torres and Orozco in Mexico), our own MLS is coming down to the wire. Arena's Galaxians are close to an automatic playoff berth as long as they don't implode as they did versus Dallas this past weekend. So, are people coming to the games? With the NFL and college football in full swing, it would be hard to see many full MLS games. And yet some manage.

Chivas has lost some of its attendance impetus but places like DC, Columbus and Salt Lake City are making up ground and/or exceeding it. A look below at difference between 2009 and 2007 shows how the fall of Beckham has strongly affected their attendance numbers. Also notice, however, that places Chivas has actually seen an increase and Toronto, Houston and RSL (strong markets) have remained about the same. Clearly, ground for improvement but also nice positives as well. Hopefully some of the weaker markets can learn to emulate the stronger ones.

MLS 2009 Attendance stats week 24 & 25

Quick update. Becks not making much of a change thus far. With some saying that the problem now lies more with TV ratings for MLS matches, I almost feel like I should be getting my hands on that sort of data. In a forum on the matter, I suggested that nationally televised shows on ESPN be limited to good rivalries with decent turnouts in order to get people excited about watching the games. Places like Toronto, LA, Seattle, and sometimes DC are prime for this sort of TV coverage. It's not a bad idea to follow Beckham around since it attracts more people to games. It's sad to see empty stadiums for playoffs in places like New England. Keep in mind that these games happen at the cavernous Gillette stadium.

What's another television-friendly venue? Really small stadiums like Buck Shaw and Community America Ballpark. Back to attendance. I always like to do the relative attendance since it shows how full any given stadium is relative to their MLS capacity. Note that MLS capacity may be smaller than the actual stadium capacity (Invesco, Gillette, Giants, etc.). A good relationship between the mean and relative is shown below.

MLS 2009 Attendance stats week 22 & 23

Updating for two weeks since I'm so busy. Concachampions action is going on now and not many at the stadiums: about 6000 at Columbus for the clash with Puerto Rico and about 8,000 in Houston against Metapan. Looking at this objectively, when we see the numbers in Marathon of Honduras, those were pretty low as well. Granted, it's a week night and no real big stars or big teams. Not much respect for the competition in general. We can compare this to low-level South American teams in the Libertadores or Sudamericana. Sometimes some games are just not that interesting.

Back to attendance analysis. Don't be too surprised with San Jose's climb out of the negative in the 2009-2008 attendance differences. They actually benefit from the Chivas (Guadalajara) versus Barcelona game at Candlestick in San Francisco. To filter that out I'm presenting the mean vs median for the western conference below.

Added to Beckham's return, barring red cards like the one that kept him out of a sold-out midweek match in Chicago, is the sudden influx of high-caliber Mexican strikers. In are Jesus Padilla and Luis Angel Landin. Padilla was usurped out of Guadalajara presumably due to the fact that he was born in the US although he is also Mexican by parentage. Keep in mind that Chivas is a team built to have exclusively Mexican players. Landin, on the other hand, is a proven striker for Cruz Azul, Pachuca and the Mexican national team. He is now the first designated player for Houston. The orange, always fun to watch, now add Landin to its considerable artillery. Look for a potential MLS Cup or semifinal at least.

MLS 2009 Attendance stats week 21

A quick update on attendance stats. Not too much change since Mr Becks was on duty in an international LA Galaxy friendly against world powerhouse Barcelona. Decent attendance in Chicago and Houston. Dallas got into the 5 digits for once. With Kenny Cooper gone and the transfer window closing soon Dallas will need to find a way to attract more fans to the stands.

Elsewhere in MLS this week is the apparent inability of our league to win in the Concachampions (Concacaf Champions League). DCU got through on penalties and Toronto couldn't get past USL side Puerto Rico islanders. Sad indeed. Full credit to the Islanders, though. DCU's schedule is extremely full from here on out and that might impede it from trully performing at a good level in all competitions. Partly to blame is MLS for not allowing more reserve players instead of the current 24 per team. This may need revision.

Stay tuned for thoughts and analysis of Josmer (Jozy) Altidore's move to Hull City of the Premier League.

MLS 2009 Attendance stats week 20

Beckham's arrival begins to show its face in attendance statistics, albeit at a more muted scale this time around. For example, his game this week was at Kansas City and it wasn't held at Arrowhead. Instead, the match was held at an expanded Community America Ballpark (about 1500 more seats than normal). Notice that using the 09-08 difference plot we see that RSL has recovered to about the same attendance average as last year. Colorado is also recovering. Further, these two teams have not had the Becks circus come to town.

No Becks in MLS this weekend. Instead it's a sold out Rose Bowl for Galaxy vs Barcelona. A quality match for sure. How come we can't get these huge numbers to turn out for MLS matches? The World Football Challenge with Inter, AC Milan, Chelsea and Club America drew no less than 50,000 each for the games played. If we could get a good 10-15% of these true football fans then MLS would surely get a boost.

Another area that MLS should be working on developing is the Concacaf Champions League. DCU managed no more than a tie against lowly Firpo from El Salvador. An early exit... again? More on that on a later post.

Finally, to round this week's MLS discussion is the current MLS schedule. Whilst I question the setup (spring to fall instead of fall to spring as is done in Europe and most regions of the world), we also have to keep in mind venues like Colorado, Chicago and Toronto. These are usually in deep freeze from December to February. Sepp Blatter, president of FIFA, recently discussed MLS's schedule and why it wasn't attracting better players. Interesting points except for the obvious points mentioned above (Chicago, Toronto). He advocates a fall to spring season. Then again, there are plenty of leagues in Scandinavia, Russia, among others, that have a sizable break during the winter. This is something worth considering. You can catch Blatter's discussion below.

MLS 2009 Attendance stats week 19

All east slew of games this past week. Lots more attendance with Becks, albeit only half of what it was on his debut at Giants Stadium back in 2007. Still, the 23238 figure was the highest for any games with Red Bulls this season. It serves them well for being sooooo bad this season (only 2 wins!). I'm highlighting the match's attendance and how it influences the general pattern in this time series.

Elsewhere it's nice to see so many people turn out for the international games. A near-full Rose Bowl at 81,000+ for Inter-Chelsea is not bad. No love for MLS, though. I was in a discussion at soccerbyives.net about what the MLS all-star game should be about. Besides its token American existence (what is it with all-star and pro-bowl games in this country?), and instead of MLS all-stars versus Everton, why not play MLS all-stars versus true world all-stars. I'm talking Messi, Ibra, Kaka, Ronaldo, Evra, Lampard, Terry, Ribery, the whole bunch. Now that's a game worth watching!

MLS 2009 Attendance stats weeks 16, 17 & 18

Stats are back! Another quick one, but I wanted to get everyone updated. Now that Becks is about to return to at least 7 different venues, attendance numbers are sure to go up. Will he stay around for another season or is MLS's Beckham experiment over with already? I'm getting word that Goldenballs may be on the verge of inking a program that would allow him to play for AC Milan part of the year and with the LA Galaxy for the other part.

As far as some high def attendance analysis, please look at the plot included here. We can see how certain events like pairing up Gold Cup games and/or high profile friendlies can cause spikes in attendance (New England, blue line). The same can be expected once Beckham comes around town.

MLS 2009 Attendance stats weeks 14 & 15

International summer + summer travel by yours truly = less frequent attendance stats. Sorry, kids.

Things are interesting, though. People show up to games even though their national side is obviously playing internationally. I can't say I blame them. I would love to go see a game live after watching a good game by the USA. I did this way back in '98 after a world cup game. I attended the superclasico Emelec-Barcelona of Guayaquil. Score was 2-1 after penalties. Kaviedes scored.

I think stats will look much more interesting once Goldenballs comes back after July 15. Thing is, that's probably when the next major update will happen. Meantime, updated plots are on the right column.

USA!!!!

MLS 2009 Attendance stats weeks 12 & 13

Two weeks in one update... International dates are gaining momentum and attention these days. Lately RSL has somehow come back to have two near sellouts in their home showings. Not bad. Right now I'm watching a very discrete game between Dallas and San Jose at the Pizza Hut Park. Empty seats abound.

Looking back to a difference between current attendance average figures against the final figures on 2007. It's basically the same pattern as 2009-2008 difference except for Chivas, which has gained momentum recently both on and off the pitch. A nice turn of events, no?

MLS 2009 Attendance stats week 11

Another quick one. It's nice to see Colorado (16528) and Dallas (9595) partly recover. Outside of the Champion's League hoopla we have our domestic league nearing the halfway point. As I watch a replay of yesterday's final ahead of today's collision between top Western team Chivas against Blanco and his Eastern leaders Chicago I suddenly realize that the reason they are showing these games back to back is possibly because ESPN lost out the television rights of next season's Champions League to Fox Soccer Channel. What will this do to the sport in the US? God only knows. ESPN has been dropping the ball when it comes to MLS coverage by somehow regarding it as less of a sport than poker (why is this on sports TV in the first place?). Still, I think ESPN should capitalize on this by targeting international soccer more. Maybe following the top teams in the world through qualifying, friendlies, etc.

Back to MLS attendance. Another look at how my relative attendance figures match up against raw numbers in the western conference. This allows us to see the capacity of each of the stadiums and how full they are from a cumulative standpoint. Notice that San Jose, for example, has very low attendance numbers but its capacity means a full stadium on most days. To me that's more important. I rather have a full small stadium than a mostly empty giant one (Giants Stadium, Gillette, etc.).

MLS 2009 Attendance stats week 10

Somehow I don't feel the DPs are working out in terms of attendance. On the field is a whole other matter that is up for debate. Things have improved, however, in places like Salt Lake and Columbus which are climbing up from their early season attendance cellars. Just last week RSL had a nearly full stadium in a game they lost to KC. On my last post I included a graphic of East conference time series. Below is the same for the West. Noteworthy is the stability of Chivas attendance, the rise of RSL, and the relatively disappointing Beckham-less Galaxy numbers. No sellouts this year.

MLS 2009 Attendance stats week 9

You can now follow me on Twiter. I'm not really sure what that means but I thought it might be worth noting. MLS games have been sort of scrambled the past couple of weeks due to midweek play. That messes up my analysis and it takes me a little while to collate everything so that it makes sense on a "weekly" basis. On that note, I wanted to update everyone on what's been happening with fans at stadiums. Where on the one hand you have expansion teams (Philly, Vancouver) selling out seats ahead of their respective start dates (2010 and 2011), on the other hand we have classic teams like Dallas trying everything to bring fans to games.

Indeed, a recent game day deal included free stuff and other considerations. Seattle, meanwhile, has expanded their MLS capacity from 27700 to 32000. This tinkers with my relative attendance analysis but I'm trying to coalesce the two seamlessly so that it works. So what do these very different turn of events mean? Either a honeymoon phase with Seattle or a reluctance of having a poor team in Dallas. Go figure. FCD has to do something soon or they risk losing their franchise. Their one advantage over other markets? Pizza Hut Park. Yes, the "Hoops" have their own home.

I also wanted to show a time series of the eastern conference attendance. After an early fall out during their second week of play, most markets have stabilized and/or recovered. Case in point, look at the defending champs, Columbus, bounce back to ~15K. Chicago's low attendance also bothers me, as does New York's fan base. Red Bull Park could become another Pizza Hut Park next year if the NYRB ownership team doesn't try something new. Otherwise, let's play with the names... Have some pizza with your red bull drink.

MLS 2009 Attendance stats week 8

Howdy... very quick update. Basically, everything you need is on the right hand column. Some hard numbers:
FCD is operating with a median of 33% capacity this year. Average is 9747. Only KC comes in under that: 9321. Keep in mind that KC's stadium only holds about 10,500 anyway. A 18k seat stadium is in the works. The mean vs median puts things into perspective:








Welcome, Philadelphia Union. Hopefully your 18,500 seater will be full for most matches... Nice rivalries with New York and DC should be a highlight. Here's their logo.... Very chic, very Euro style and a nice name. Enjoy the stats and see you next week.

MLS 2009 Attendance stats week 7

This will be short but poignant. Previously, on week 5, I had done some analysis on weather-attendance correlations. Not much there. I thought maybe I would try the same but with relative attendance to put all stadiums in perspective under the same umbrella. Interesting things happen. With Toronto and Seattle (attendance leaders with sellout crowds) attendance has a very slight but noticeable trend to cooler games (on right). Notice I have circled the suspect attendance figures. Some include LA but I keep those for the second analysis.

So let's say we have no TFC and no Sounders. . . Trends (very slight and statistically not significant) are for warmer weather (figure on the left). I'm beginning to agree with some of the readers that the economy may be to blame. I think it's also fans of the game that are not as enthusiastic for their own teams (i.e. Dallas, Chicago, Colorado). Note that all three have their own stadium. Chicago perplexes me... they have Blanco and McBride.

MLS 2009 Attendance stats week 6

I may take a couple of days to post these numbers but they're usually worth it, right? Pretty pictures are usually more intuitive than just random numbers and facts. With that in mind, I'd like to concentrate on this week's numbers. With both TFC and Seattle playing at home, you would expect big numbers. TFC never disappoints and Seattle got its money's worth with Ljundberg and Keller scoring big both on the pitch and in the stands.

As it stands, if you took Seattle and Toronto away, league mean attendance would be scarcely over 12,000. The two teams alone bring the number above 14,000. Columbus and DCU are showing signs of a comeback in attendance terms. Less can be said about the reigning champ's success on the pitch. But it's early and plenty of dreaming to be done. Schellotto may yet show his considerable muscle and this team has a great base to work with.

Qwest field is no Bernabeu and San Jose is no Chelsea, but the stadium boils over with excitement from the crowd nonetheless. More on Champions League after tomorrow's affair. One more check at attendance. On the right is a pie chart of attendance for the western conference. On the left is the same for the east. Clearly, the two attendance leaders overshadow other teams. No Beckham means no huge white chunk (denoting Galaxy) of the pie.

MLS 2009 Attendance stats week 5

Another week. Another disappointing look at attendance. Does Beckham actually make that much of a difference? I prefer going to full stadiums to get the full atmosphere. Estadio Capwell, Monumental de Guayaquil, Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, Turner Field in Atlanta, RFK Stadium, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Florida, Carter Finley Stadium. All glorious when full. Empty and cavernous with no fans.

It's a shame to see beautiful, new soccer-only stadiums like Rio Tinto and Dick's Sporting Goods Park so empty. It seems like any shot during the game catches empty sections of seats. Dallas looks terrible, not on the pitch, but on the stands. It's no secret that many players in the league are itching to play in Seattle and Toronto. Why not? People show up. People are loud. It injects spirit into the players. How should the league and/or teams address this? Square one if you're Dallas/Colorado/RSL. Build your fan base and nurture it. That's the key. One or two expensive stars can only do so much.

Many of us MLSers out there wonder... Why aren't people coming out? No Beckham? Economy? Lack of buzz about teams? Weather? At least one of those is actionable. As a climate scientist I wanted to look at the relationship between weather and attendance. Maybe a factor for 10-20% of fans? More? Not in Toronto or Seattle. Plot 1 on the right shows all games in terms of both attendance and temperature. Not much of a trend. Maybe a tendency towards cooler temperatures? Right. Remove (both cold) Seattle and Toronto (circled) and you get the second plot (left). Trending towards warmer weather? Sure. Very noisy. Not much to look at. Maybe a look at relative attendance - weather next week.

MLS 2009 Attendance stats week 4

4th week. Same numbers. Sort of. RSL attendance slumps, as does the defending champs', Columbus. Rio Tinto Stadium's beautiful facade is, regrettably, visible. The yellow bleachers at Crew stadium glare in the afternoon sun. San Jose was respectable considering the small size of Buck Shaw Stadium (10,500 seats). The Galaxy was actually able to attract over 23,000 to the Home Depot Center for its derby against Chivas.

Elsewhere, Toronto and Seattle had sold out stadiums. I've read how many players in MLS teams are looking forward to playing at Qwest field. Why not? Lots of fans and incredible atmosphere. It's also been rumored that the Sounders are hoping to expand MLS seating beyond its current 27,700 capacity. It's starting to get warmer out there and college hoops are closed for the season. Time to see our MLS supporters in the stands, right? Well, with DC's stadium problems at the top of the list and increasing amounts of expansion teams (Philly, Vancouver, Portland), it's only getting more complicated. It's not so far-fetched to see DC losing its franchise to, say, Saint Louis.

More emphasis should be placed on regaining those ardent crowds that have made teams like DC so strong on and off the field. Come on, MLS, show the fans some love, give them some guidance and a reason to attend games. TFC and the Sounders responded with great squads and acquisitions and they look good on the pitch too. Plenty of season left.

Meantime, a look at the current relative attendance median for the western conference (right). In other words, how full is a stadium on any given week? Also, a similar plot for last season for the western conference (left).