The Rise of CONCACAF

Originally I was going to call this entry "What happened to Mexico?" but I would be selling short the upswing in play by Central America and the Caribbean. Indeed, the so-called group of death that included Mexico, Honduras, Jamaica and Canada proved to be just that. Up until the last minute of yesterday's matches there was a chance that either Jamaica, Honduras or even mighty Mexico might be left out of the final round of World Cup Qualifying. I put an emphasis on "final round" because it highlights the fact that that team would not even make the top 6 of the Hexagonal. The group ended with Honduras on top with 12 points, followed by Mexico with 10 and Jamaica with 10. Mexico went through with its higher goal differential but just the thought that the top team in Concacaf could have been left out was enough for the media to jump on the story and question the Sven Goran Eriksson, the technical staff, the players, and even Mexican soccer in general. My take? Mexico is not to blame. They have more than capable players in elite leagues around Europe even though some of its younger players aren't seeing time on the pitch (Vela, Dos Santos). There is a reason why this group was called the group of death. It's difficult enough to win in Honduras of late, period. Jamaica rarely gives points away at "the Office" (national stadium) and they have a good team as well. This group came down to who took the most points and goals from Canada and how much the top three scored on each other. Jamaica and Mexico came away from Canada with 1 point each while Honduras managed all 3. Ultimately, Mexico's 3-0 rout of Jamaica on Aztec soil was their ticket to the Hexagonal. So put Mexico against Guatemala or El Salvador and their place in the finals would have been assured as it was for Costa Rica and the US.
I think that we need to be more creative in the way we speak about our national teams and how they are the cream of the crop compared to so-called "minnows" of the Concacaf conference. Clearly, Honduras, Jamaica, T&T and Canada are all worthy foes. It will not be an easy run in the Hexagonal for any team and at this point all teams are expendable. Costa Rica's position is a toss-up since they have not played against more demanding foes so we can't be sure what their position will be in the next round. Expect a few surprises and maybe a major upset. Bring on the Hexagonal.

Neven Subotic and the US National Team

There has been much speculation regarding one Neven Subotic--an outstanding defender of Serbian roots, American citizenship and German residency--and which country he might represent in the near future as Africa 2010 slowly creeps up on us. I have alluded to this particular situation on previous entries and I still believe he would be a great asset to the United States. Just recently it was mistakenly reported that Subotic had opted to play for Serbia instead of the US or Bosnia (also eligible). This, however, was quickly retracted when Sunil Gulati, the US Soccer Federation Prez himself, issued a communique saying that USSF had spoken with Subotic's representatives and claimed such claims to be "untrue." Earlier attempts by Germany to claim him were thwarted by FIFA due to a technicality involving his status with US youth squads.
So why all the fuss? Some facts: Subotic was born in Yugoslavia, spent his childhood in Germany and his teenage years in the USA since 1999 (Utah, Florida). He attended (and represented) the University of South Florida, played for the US U-17 and was eligible although not selected for U-20. He has spent the past couple of seasons in the German Bundesliga, playing for FSV Mainz (4 goals in 34 games) and most recently for powerhouse Borussia Dortmund (5 goals in 13 games). Clearly, the US backline can use a man of his stature and nose for goal. But here's my take on this debate and I'd like to pick Subotic's brain for just a second. . .
Serbia, former Yugoslavia is clearly no Germany in world footballing terms, but then again the US isn't Yugoslavia in footballing terms either. Yugoslavia reached the semifinals in the 1930 amd 1962 World Cups and runers-up in the 1960 and 1968 UEFA Euros. Let's not forget that Croatia was also once part of the Communist Yugoslavia and their 3rd place finish in France 98 is noteworthy. Many attributed most of the former Yugoslavia deep player pool to playters such as Davor Suker (Croatia) and Savo Milosevic (born in Bosnia, played for Yugoslavia/Serbia). Confusing, heh? And it should be, because Subotic also has the posibility to represent Bosnia, although his Serb parents strongly suggest Serbia as his team.
All in all, I think it comes to this: right now both the US and Serbia have chances of advancing to World Cup 2010. The US may have it easier against foes from CONCACAF whilst Serbia is paired up with none other than mighty France and on-again off-again Romania plus the feisty Austrians. I venture to suggest that Subotic will pick a team that has already qualified or is on the verge of qualifying for FIFA's biggest date, if he follows his football greed... if he follows his heart is another matter altogether. Clearly, the man will be a starter no matter whom he plays for. As for us USA fans let's cross our fingers and hope that France and Romania get the better of Serbia (Serbia has yet to snatch points from either one). We lost Rossi to Italy even though the boy was born in Jersey and now he's scoring regularly for Villareal and will feature alongside Luca Toni in the full national squad. Hopefully this will not be the case with Subotic.
Here he is in action:

Do the Crew!!!

At points in this MLS season I had badmouthed the Columbus Crew fans, labeling their franchise as one that could be moved elsewhere especially given that they did away with a portion of the stadium seats to make room for a stage. I always had faith in their team, however. Blue collar, hard working, compact, no huge stars. It's a classic underdog story. The once-Boca player Guillermo-Barros Schelloto pulls the strings in a most-Argentinean manner rekindling the days of Ortega, Veron and Co. Robbie Rogers is the American starlet that featured in the Olympics (without much impact). Hesmer is the goalie with mistique, Moreno the default #10, accompanied by US international and surfer Frankie Hejduk, plus Eddie Gaven, Nigerian Olympic medalist Emanuel Ekpo, and a host of other characters make up the new MLS bandwagon team. MLSRumors founders and current proprietors are also big Crew fans. It was a steady rise to the top for Sigi Schmid's team, both on the pitch and in the stands. They steadily made their way to the top brushing aside Chicago, DCU and the Revs. Their top form earned them a Supporter's Shield title (League championship, so to speak, based on regular season standings, a place in next year's Concachampions and a berth at next week's MLS Cup. So let's toast to the most hardworking team in the league! Being smart in terms of youth-experience balance, staying away from a DP, and ultimately winning the day through the impecable job done by Schmid has trully brought this team to the main stage at last. Here's to one of the original MLS 10 that actually kept their [at times regarded as silly] name. Bring it on, RSL/NY. A new champ will be crowned and maybe, for once, it will be the right team.
A few moments with the Crew (Guillermo always in the mix):

Jozy Altidore scores for Villareal

Typical Jozy. Composed, oportunistic, confident. A low shot to the left of the 'keeper and Jozy's European career just got a major boost. Hopefully it's the first of many. Hopefully he can be loaned to a smaller club so he can get more playing time but it's great to see him score for the yellow submarine!

MLS Attendance stats final week 2008

Hello, everyone. Final week was last week. Sorry it took me a little bit but it's been a busy month for me. Things should be easier from now on and other random statistics will be computed to show different trends. This year was about equal to last year (check out the difference plot, particularly the total). It was lower by about 97 seats or about 0.52%. Meaningless in statistical terms. Looking at the distribution for total attendance in pie chart format we see that DC and TFC share the majority of percentage (both with 17%), with Chicago (15%) and New England (15%) also showing respectable numbers. It's unfortunate that Columbus is lower (13%) given their sensational season.
Out west we see an obvious winner in the Galaxy (22%) due to the Beckham crowds. A modest Houston comes in second (15%) while RSL and a surprising Chivas (14%) are next in the pecking order. FCD is dissapointing again at 11%, lower than San Jose--their attendance numbers are inflated by games at the McAfee Colisseum. Elswhere, in relative attendance terms it seems that stadiums, on any given week, were about 70-80% full in the east. That's not a bad number compared to previous years. The west would be slightly lower at 60-70% on weekly basis, their numbers enhanced by LAG.

Diego Armando Maradona: from God to Coach

Just yesterday the soccer world was shocked (good/bad), even though it had been a possibility, to hear that Diego Armando Maradona would be the new coach of the Argentinian national team. "Diego," as he's simply known in most soccer-literate places is synonymous with soccer due to his personality, play, memories, and political views. If Pele is the King of Football then, Argentinians argue, Maradona is God. I'm torn here because I grew up watching Diego completely tear it up in 1986 (hand of God and best goal ever in the 2-1 game against England in the quarterfinals), then saw him cry at Argentina's loss to Andreas Brehme's questionable penalty in the Italia 1990 World Cup final against Germany, and fall from grace in 1994 after scoring against Greece while subsequently testing positive for doping. I was also in vigil when his life was threatened due to substance abuse and other health problems 2 years ago. Further, his political stance annoys me (pro Castro and Chavez, no to the US).
I question the wisdom of his appointment as a coach, however, since he has no real previous experience. Given his past history this will either be an amazing run for Argentina and further proof of his status as a sports deity or a catastrophic fall from grace far greater than Hugo Sanchez's for Mexico's Olympic qualifying in 2008 or even Diego's own failure in 1994. Still, I'll cheer him and Argentina on (except in fixtures against Ecuador or those that might affect its fight for a place in 2010).
Cheers, Diego. And may the force be with you.

MLS Attendance stats week 30

One more week after this and then more in depth analysis of the season as a whole with caveats about the playoff attendance numbers. It's a weird number to have, but 31 is the allotted number of games for every team (there are 14 teams in the league). Barring any last minute supercrowds at Columbus, New England, Dallas and Colorado, it's safe to bet that this year will fall short of last year's mark but only by about 100 seats (~1%). That's a minuscule amount in the grand scheme of things but certain places like Dallas have seen drops of more than 14%. My weekly difference of 2008 minus total 2007 shows the trends in a clearer manner (see yellow bar graph on right column). To counter that places like LA, Chicago and Houston have seen increases of up to 7%. We can only speculate how these numbers will change next season if Beckham doesn't return until mid-May.

Finally, to synthesize some of the latest numbers in terms of my patented relative attendance, I've decided to post high resolution plots of the median relative attendance, i.e. how full the stadium was on any given matchday. In the east TFC rules the land at 100% for almost every match, KC follows due to its relatively small stadium, and DC and Chicago also show good numbers in the high 70s and 80s. The Red Bulls below 60% is a bit troubling. Let's see how these numbers hold up when the new stadium opens.
For the west LA tops it with most matches as sell-outs, plus San Jose's small stadium. Some surprising numbers include that for Colorado at more than 60% as well as a recovering RSL at 60%. Numbers tend to be smaller in the west for whatever reason.
I will rejoin you with the last installment of MLS attendance stats. Please click on the ads and help support the website ;)