Edu, Agudelo and the new MLS international carrousel

Maurice Edu joined Philadelphia Union in the latest transfer of established US internationals to Major League Soccer. At the same time, forward Juan Agudelo has joined Utrecht of the Eridivisie via a loan from Stoke City. This is a brave new world for MLS and the US national team.

While this sort of transfer business has been going on for a few years now, the sudden upswing in MLS acquisitions (Dempsey, Bradley, Edu) and continuing exits of youngsters (Cameron, Agudelo, Shea) has put the paradigm on overdrive. It's clear now that MLS is becoming a bona fide source of talent for the wealthier leagues in Europe as well as the Liga MX.

While some fans and commentators might find it a "downgrade" to transfer back to MLS after having established a good reputation in Europe, as Dempsey and Bradley did, it suffices to say that this new pattern is here to stay and the athletes are happy with where it puts them in their career, in the scope of the national team, as well as monetarily and in their personal lives.

Some of our younger prospects have made the jump over the Atlantic these past couple of seasons. Juan Agudelo, the once next-Altidore before slumping internationally, finally made a move to Europe and is looking to settle with Utrecht and break back into the forward pool for the national team. His biggest competition will likely be Eddie Johnson and Terrence Boyd, although the latter has yet to show his quality on the senior international level.

Also abroad at the moment and hoping to break back into the national team is Brek Shea (on loan to Barnsley). The midfielder had a rough time with injuries during 2013 and made few appearances for Stoke but his loan might bring his game up enough to re-enter national team contention. Another recent MLS transfer is Geoff Cameron, who has settled well in the Premiership as a bona fide defender/midfielder.

Potential MLS transfers abroad this season, especially with a good World Cup, is the central defense duo Omar Gonzalez and Matt Besler. Graham Zusi might just be able to move to Europe as well.

Another player from the current US national team roster that could move to MLS is Jermaine Jones. His time at Schalke 04 is swiftly coming to an end and he has made it clear that he would like to play in the US.

All in all, this international player carrousel is good for the league and for national team players, especially as MLS gains in strength and quality. Our young players moving to Europe at a steady pace is also a credit to development in this country and shows no signs of waning.

 

Choosing MLS: Adu and Eddie Johnson

Photo credit: MLS

Freddy Adu made headlines in the American soccer media last when he rejoined MLS and suited up for the Philadelphia Union over the weekend. There was a general applause as the "prodigal son" returned to the stage that saw him rise as a promising young star. This week comes word that Eddie Johnson might also join the league. Things turned sour, however, for "EJ" and now his future in the American league is in peril.

But what does a return to MLS mean to our young soccer stars? For Adu it's a chance to rekindle his talents, which as we saw at the Gold Cup, are just as impressive as US fans had hoped. Adu's insertion into the Union lineup gives coach Nowak significant freedom as far as player combinations and formations. Nowak's team can function in any number of 4-4-2 (diamond or flat) or even in an attacking-minded 4-3-3 with Adu as a withdrawn forward.

Adu has been requested by many fans to rejoin the league mostly because we are all aware of his talents and because the European market grew more and more concerned about his performance. Benfica worked great for the first few months but he soon became surplus. A loan to Monaco meant almost no playing time since the coach saw him only as a fringe player. The same happened with Belenenses. Adu seemed to have found a home at Aris Salonika of Greece but financial troubles meant his loan could not be extended or taken up as a transfer. Freddy finally realized that playing time was more important and Rizespor of the Turkish second division gave him what he needed.

In twitter conversations a few years back I realized how important Adu could be for the game in the United States. He was a "failed star" to the media and critics. Too young to appreciate the game and his talents. Perhaps it was true. But he also had the ability to "run at the defense" and not "run around the defense" like our other prodigy--Donovan--does. Jamie Trecker made this observation.

In MLS, Adu has the freedom to play his way but under the tutelage and boundaries determined by Piotr Nowak, his first professional coach. And let's face it, Donovan also had trouble playing in Europe when he was a young up-and-coming star with the national team. Now Landon is known worldwide and a bone fide star. Adu can do the same by keeping his head cool and focusing on the game. He might one day return to Europe as Donovan did.

There were a couple of other names this season and last that returned from Europe to play in MLS. Jay DeMerrit had his time in the old continent and did the most with it. Benny Feilhaber, a mainstay with Bob Bradley, also saw his time in Europe come to an abrupt end when his team was relegated. He has had a quiet but active time with New England this season.

There have also been a few snubs towards MLS. DaMarcus Beasley, for one, chose to join the Mexican Primera instead of his home country. Games are still more competitive there due to the history of each team and the established style of play. How do we take this? I say it's just a player looking to do something different in a new league. I don't think it "makes MLS look bad" that he chooses not to play in the United States.

The latest MLS returnee, Eddie Johnson, was set to undergo the league allocation utilized to evenly distribute national team players throughout the various teams. Many fans [and media] were glad to see another special player return to America. Johnson played only sparingly for Fulham (owner of his rights) and had stints at Cardiff City and Aris Salonika. But just today it was revealed that no deal had been reached, perhaps due to his requested salary, and that he would ultimately not join the league. What does this mean for the league? Potentially the loss of another talented American. For Johnson it may mean fighting for minutes in Europe unless the team he joins makes him a starter.

It is increasingly visible that MLS is becoming a great option not just for experienced players but also for former American stars in the league. Stars like Adu and Feilhaber are able to further develop by playing their trade in an increasingly more competitive domestic league. For Adu, his age and talent increases his chances of one day playing in a big team. But is this necessary? Players like Donovan have proven it's not necessary to leave MLS to become American soccer stars.

MLS 2011 Attendance Statistics Game Week 19

Generally good attendance has been the norm for the past couple of weeks. The only exceptions would be Houston last week (12047) and San Jose (8122). Never mind the unyielding heat east of the Rockies. People are coming out to the games.

I thought I would look at another interesting piece of data. I do a lot with "relative attendance" (actual/capacity) in addition to mean and median. The relative attendance is usually for the mean. But what about the median relative attendance? This week I look at the Eastern Conference. We see that, on any given week, DCU is at 61% capacity as well as New England (65%). Lowest here are Houston (56%) and Columbus (52%). Do note, however, that Houston's capacity far exceeds most of the Eastern Conference (27000). KC (100%), TFC (87%) and Philadelphia (99%) are the highest.

MLS 2011 Attendance Statistics Game Weeks 7 & 8

It has dawned on me that although this may be the seventh actual week of MLS play, it really is game week 9. As thus, I'm renaming the statistics series of posts "game week" instead of "week."
With that aside, I'd like to provide another important caveat: although Philadelphia looks to have lost in the attendance difference from 2010, the reality is different. Initially, the Union played a couple of games at Lincoln Financial Field (home of the Eagles). Those games were over 30,000 and 20,000, far more than the 18500 seats available at PPL Park. Their average right now is ~17,000, very close to last year's when you factor out the games at the football stadium. We are likely to see the same process (although opposite effect) when Sporting Kansas City starts playing at Livestrong Field, which has twice as much space as Community America Ballpark.

Okay, back to the stats. Columbus and New England continue to struggle whilst Dallas is the biggest winner (aside from the Galaxy). Indeed, Dallas had a sellout, albeit very wet, outing against the Galaxy. Even better, the crowds were payed back through a clutch win versus the West Coast giants. No need to get too worried about the New York, Houston and Chicago markets, as they are likely to stabilize and remain close to last year's numbers.

As promised, above is a plot showing the relationship between relative attendance and actual average attendance for teams in the Eastern Conference. Notice that Philly has attendance near the 100% relative mark but is smaller next to DCU and Toronto given those teams' larger capacity stadiums. Columbus and New England are at the other end of the spectrum. Both are well below the other teams both in average attendance and relative. As far as actual numbers, New England is presently half full (49%) whilst Columbus is slightly higher than that (54%).

MLS 2011 Attendance Statistics Week 4

We are now in the 4th week of play and attendance remains strong for the most part. FC Dallas, although only having an average of just under 12,000 for their last couple of matches, still pulls off an average of over 14,000 given their sellout opening game. They are clearly doing something right both on and off the pitch. Vancouver has also had the novelty sellout crowds and continue to show how strong soccer is in the Pacific Northwest market. The Portland Timbers open their new home venue at Jen-Weld Field on Thursday. This match attracts special interest on my part, as I will probably attend a few games this season.

Some of the weaker markets are already showing their poor attendance, however. Most notable are New England and Columbus. A more detailed look at the difference between seasons is presented in the two plots above. For the yellow bars (2011-2010), New England lags behind last year's average by over 3,000. Compare that to 2009 (green bars) and it is over 4,000. Something needs to be done to address this. Not to mention that their total numbers are in the four-digit category. New England used to be one of the strongest markets early in the league's history. Is it management? Players? The venue? Steve Nicol is a great coach but sometimes fresh ideas can inject energy into a team (and crowd). Hyndmann did it for Dallas.

Also on the losing end is Columbus. The 2008 champions have struggled in attendance for the past couple of years, even with the presence of Barros-Schelotto. They also recently lost their jersey sponsor, Glidden, before their contract was up. Finally, Chicago is also well below their past attendance numbers when C. Blanco was playing. Bringing is Ljundberg and Nery Castillo payed very little dividends and aren't in the team anymore.

Expect other markets like Houston and Toronto to stabilize. Their fan base is strong and their stadiums are usually full. More stats will come by the middle of next week as a combo of weeks 5 and 6.

MLS 2010 Attendance stats week 13-15

Yes, World Cup action is all over the place. Don't forget we have our own league here in the US, and it's back in action after the group phase ended. Note that a lot more people are showing up to games due, perhaps, to increased buzz about the sport. Philly just opened their new PPL Park soccer-specific stadium on the banks of the Delaware river in Chester, PA. The capacity crowd of 18,700 showed once again why the sport is here to stay. Out in LA yesterday fans cheered their hearts out for their players. And no, it wasn't David Beckham. It was the American Hero Landon Donovan. A capacity 27,000 crowd watched the game from the stands (and the lawn). We have to credit Donovan and the US national team for this. Crowds are also up in Dallas, Toronto, Salt Lake City and Colorado. Expect crowds to remain high as the season rolls on.

Stats graphics are on the right column.

MLS 2009 Attendance stats week 6

Figures have been updated through week 6. You will notice a dip in TFC attendance (below 20K?!). Not by much, but certainly bogs down on their differential from last season. RSL also had a poor showing and has lost its edge. DCU is understandable given their poor form... Too bad ESPN has to cover them (another weak attendance showing on national TV... when will they learn?!). If it weren't for Seattle and Philly's inflated opening match game we may have the same or even lower average attendance compared with last year's. Keep in mind that we average not the games, but each team's average of their own games. This filters out some of the noise. New York remains strong, despite their less-than-stellar numbers (about 15k+ at their last home game). Anything is better than last year's numbers... on and off the field.

MLS 2010 Attendance stats week 3

Welcome to the Union...actually, more like "Welcome, Union." Watch out, Seattle... another team is selling out 35,000 seats for an MLS match. Well, that is until June, when the Philadelphia Union will move out of Lincoln Financial Field and into their brand new PPL Park in Chester, PA. Their soccer-specific stadium holds 18,500, but that's okay, because it's better to have a full soccer park than to play in a cavernous American football stadium (New England) or a shared baseball field (Kansas City). PS: KC will get their own stadium so this is temporary and better than Arrowhead.

Back to the stats. MLS and their new website has made it harder to get actual attendance numbers, but I was able to find them through other sources. The East is the big winner this week thanks to Philly. Dallas disappointed once more but at least came out of the 4-digits. RSL and Chicago opened at home with sold-out stadiums (20K each). Relative to last year, New England, Columbus and San Jose show losses but we can expect this to change as more games are played. TFC has yet to open at home this season. They will open on Thursday. Enjoy the figures (right column).

MLS 2010

Just a few thoughts as we open MLS' 15th season. That's right... 15th season. It seems like just yesterday we were talking about Carlos Valderrama, ridiculous shootouts, countdown clocks and team names like Clash, Mutiny, Burn, Fusion. Not anymore. After the Beckham experiment blew up and simmered down, MLS rose from the ashes with Seattle as a flagship of success. The Sounders posted the highest average attendance ever for an MLS soccer team last season (>30,000) and are poised to break that record once more.

On the field things have also changed. Although Beckham may be hurt and Blanco is on leave at Mexico's Veracruz (hoping for a spot in the World Cup), rising stars like Christ Pontius, Freddy Montero, Sean Franklin and Marvell Wynne are quickly proving that the league can produce quality players. Former graduates include Eddie Johnson, Jozy Altidore, Clint Dempsey, Tim Howard (ringing a bell yet?). This surge of talent is complemented by veterans like Kasey Keller, Freddie Ljundberg, Landon Donovan, Juan Pablo Angel. This is what makes this league stronger every year.

A few questions remain: Can MLS compete internationally? Can stadiums outside of Seattle and Toronto be filled with fans? Can new franchises be sustainable? All will be addressed by the league in due time and we may see glimpses of this on the present season.

Watch out for rising stars like Danny Mwanga and Jack McInerney in Philadelphia's new team, as well as Opara in San Jose, among others. New signings and/or designated players (expensive guys like Beckham) are on the horizon and something tells me we're likely to see them right after the World Cup...Henry, we're looking in your direction. Also, behold the majestic Red Bull Arena and the cozy PPL Park.

A great opening game tonight and Seattle showed why they may be the team to beat this year.... Let's have a great season!

MLS player strike?

MLS Player's Union and MLS league officials have failed to reach a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). Among points in dispute are player salaries and the ability of teams to deal with individual players instead of the league itself. I thought I would weigh in a little bit on the matter. Instead of focusing on some of the politics and details involved, I wanted to touch on how a player strike in Major League Soccer would affect the league, players, teams, fans, and the sport as a whole in this country.

If we think back to NHL and MLB, we cringe at the possibilities when it comes to MLS. NHL lost broadcasting. MLB was paralized and even President Clinton threatened to intervene. MLS would be left in shambles, no?

Consider the possibilities: Philadelphia has a brand new team with a brand new stadium and ardent fans waiting for soccer to finally make an appearance in their city. What do you do if your league doesn't even play? Seattle, a solid team that sold out every game last season, is in danger of losing fans, money and credibility. What do we say to Portland and Vancouver (set to begin play next season)? What do we say to further expansion of the league if it's in danger of collapsing?

Finally, what happens to the players? Where will they go? How do they retain game fitness? What will happen to our national team? The USA has a third to a half of its players in the domestic league. This may spell doom for the country's chances at the World Cup.

And what about international progress of the league? Will foreigners continue to laugh at us... maybe even stronger now?

These are several points worth considering. Indeed, hard decisions to come. The player's union and MLS are continuing talks but a strike may be inevitable if a new CBA isn't reached.

Some numbers to consider:

AVERAGE PLAYER SALARIES
NBA: $4,900,000
MLB: $2,866,544
NHL: $1,460,000 (used to be $1,830,000)
NFL: $1,250,000
EPL: $1,162,720
MLS*: $90,000????
AFL: $85,000
WNBA: $55,000

LEAGUE SALARY CAPS:
MLB No Cap - Highest Team Payroll- Yankees $208 Million
NFL No Cap - Highest Team Payroll- Raiders $152 Million
NBA $60 Million
NHL $57 Million
MLS $2.3 Million

COMMISSIONER SALARIES
Bud Selig MLB $14.5 million
Roger Goodell NFL $10.3 million
Gary Bettman NHL $5.9 million
Don Garber MLS $3 Million

NFL national TV package rights: $3.085 Billion/year
MLB national TV Package: $416m/year
NBA national TV package: $400m/year
NHL US National TV package: $75m/year
MLS national TV package: $1.5m/year.

MLS Superdraft: An American Institution

Among the many idiosyncrasies of MLS is their "superdraft" of collegiate players. As I alluded to on an earlier post, College soccer is unique in all the world due to its scope and niche. The draft adds another layer of complexity and uniqueness to the game of soccer in this country and its league, MLS. To recap for futbol fans out there unaccustomed to "drafts," it is a system that allows for the "weaker" teams that finished with the worst records the preceding season to "catch up" to the better teams by drafting the top prospects from college leagues and younger (Adu & Altidore).

I view the draft as link between mainstream American sports and the game of footbal/soccer/futbol. It has more weight in this country because of the way the league is set up (no promotion/relegation) and restrictions on player contracts, salary caps and youth development. It's true that the number one draft pick doesn't always deliver as he did in College, but the same holds true for any sport. The more influential standouts in MLS drafts have been Brian McBride and Maurice Edu. Both had international stature and both delivered on the field. Others like Freddy Adu and Marvell Wynne haven't impressed much, although both are young and still full of possibilities.

The draft is also a strange mix between foreign players and domestic talent to replenish the league after trades to foreign markets and/or lower divisions (USL). Some of them continue on to being US international stars like Marcus Tracy and Jozy Altidore. Some choose to represent their own countries like Bakary Soumare and Alejandro Moreno. Is it so different from major European team scouting both domestically and abroad?

It is true that there is also the "spring" and "fall" transfer windows in MLS and that major international signings supersede the Superdraft. It is also true that without the draft things would be much messier when looking to allocate Collegiate players. After all, this is not a league based on youth development. Colleges and universities provide the majority of the young talent in the league.

So what do we have this year? Another strong class. Last year, Marcus Tracy and Mike Grella decided to skip MLS. This year, Mwanga, McInerney, Duka and Opara are all staying. Is MLS gaining ground on foreign markets? Yes, in a way. Top prospects usually find it hard to see the pitch abroad (just ask Adu, Grella or even Altidore). Here, they get the playing time they deserve and the minutes on the field that propels them to more prestigious leagues and teams.

The Philadelphia Union will be happy with their new number 10. Maybe they won't need a designated player. Tony Tchani, from the NCAA final, will play in New York. Ike Opara, eventual senior national-teamer, is headed to San Jose. Teal Bunbury becomes the first son of a former MLS player and joins the same team as his father--Kansas City. Okugo and McInerney, US youth squad standouts, join Mwanga at the Union. Dilly Duka has been shipped to Columbus and Blair Gavin (another star of the NCAA final) was chosen by Martin Vasquez and Chivas USA. Many more were chosen today that I will not dwell on. Sometimes the lesser-known tend to be sleepers that turn into bona fide stars. Jozy Altidore, for example, was a round two pick.

We have much to look forward to this season in MLS. The Union has set up a potentially-dominant, young squad that could rival 2009's Seattle Sounders. We will also be keeping tabs on potential national team players...especially during a World Cup year.

MLS 2009

Welcome back to another edition of MLS. It is now season 14 and things are looking up (and in some instances looking down). Through the Beckham saga we have acquired new meaning abroad and domestically. The league is now 15-member strong with the addition of Seattle as an expansion team. And what an expansion team it is! A (probable European-bound) Freddy Montero opened up his account in MLS with two goals in a 3-0 win for the Pacific Northwest team on Thursday night of last week. Present was a sellout crowd of 32000+.

Added to Seattle's success is the addition of two more west coast teams--Vancouver and Portland. Both were USL teams (Whitecaps and Timbers respectively) so a form of "promotion" seems to have occurred here. Indeed, as remarked by ESPN Soccernet's Ives Galarcep, the Pacific Northwest offers a sizable contingent of true soccer fans dying to have a professional team to call their own. Leave it to Drew Carey (Seattle) and Steve Nash (Vancouver) to add a little flair to ownership plus a great deal of enthusiasm. Last I read Vancouver had already sold 5000 season seats for their debut in 2011. Waiting for their debut is also next-year's Philadelphia.

But not all is bright in MLS land. An expected, sub-par Beckham-less crowd of 18000 came to see the Galaxians face DCU in their home opener at the Home Depot Center. That's a small crowd compared to its capacity of 27000 (frequently filled last season with Goldenballs in the team). Dallas somehow managed to get in almost 16000 fans (probably there to see Blanco). They could use a DP injection, as would Houston. The two-time MLS Cup champions also opened to a reasonable crowd, even with Columbus (reigning champ) and Barros-Schelotto on the pitch. I hear, however, that the men in orange may be close to signing a major Mexican international. That would be a good start.

Disappointing, in soccer terms, were teams like New York (2008 runner's up), Dallas, San Jose and KC. I'm also sad to hear comments from abroad about the state of our league. Hopefully time will change this. In terms of positives, it's very interesting to see Toronto play so well. They have a very deep squad with the likes of DeRosario, Guevara, Ricketts, Dichio, Wynne and Frei. They may be even scarier if management is able to secure a designated player.

As always, I'll let the stats do the talk for me. Throughout the season I hope to have up-to-date attendance analysis graphics on the right column. I welcome feedback.