Missing points: How Ecuador will find it tough to reach the World Cup

A few months ago it seemed almost certain that the Ecuador national soccer team would be at Brazil 2014. Two games later that is no longer the case. Where in the past 4 rounds of qualifiers dating back to 1998, points in Peru had been all but assured, this time was different. Zero points in June. And where every single match at the Atahualpa had yielded 3 points, Argentina stole 2 away.

So now the team is 5 points away from the World Cup. Right now they would have 26 points and would be one win away from the tournament. As it stands now, a win at Bolivia next week and a win at home versus Uruguay in the last home game is required to enter the tournament.

Chile is likely to surpass Ecuador today as they face Venezuela at home. "La Roja" is particularly dangerous with players like Alexis Sanchez and Humberto Suazo while Venezuela, an upstart in recent years, is likely not strong enough to steal points away in Santiago. With a win by the Chileans, Ecuador will go down to fourth place. 

Further complicating things is Uruguay. Luis Suarez returns to the squad and they can certainly take all 3 points away from Peru today. A game versus Colombia might also yield points and a total of 6 points will put them ahead of Ecuador by Tuesday if the Ecuadorians are unable to get any of the 6 or even 1 point in the next two games. Same would happen if Venezuela wins 6 points.

Let's be clear. Bolivia are out already, even if the highly-unlikely situation in which they win their next four games. Peru, at 14, has a better chance but still would need a serious run for all 12 points. It becomes a matter of mathematics at this point if Ecuador do not win any points in the next couple of games. A win versus Uruguay in October would be a must and even that might not be enough if the "Charruas" win all six points this week and still have another game in hand.

So what does Ecuador have to make this happen? Some pride and good quality for sure. Felipe Caicedo is on board, as is Valencia, Rojas, Mina, Montero and Walter Ayovi. How Reinaldo Rueda will line up his squad and defensive/offensive posture is up in the air. Ball possession has been key but early game management has haunted this team of late. 

The absence of Chucho Benitez is key now. The recent, painful loss of the Ecuador ace could also be used as a way to rile up the national team. To play for their fallen comrade. To make it to the tournament in his honor after he gave so much to the country and the team. So, play for him, Ecuador. Play for love.

Points at home: Ecuador - Colombia

World Cup Qualifying is all about points. It doesn't matter how you get them, be it by a high score or a 1-0. It's also important to win, always win, at home. Ecuador continued with this in today's match versus Colombia in Quito as "Chucho" Benitez's header gave the home side the win. 

Maintaining a flawless record at home can be nearly impossible even for teams like Brazil and Argentina. With a marathon of 18 games that are spread over a 2.5 year period it's easy to let 2 to 4 points go at home through ties. This, however, is the major and most fundamental difference: these points should be recovered in away matches. It's also key to not lose at home, for regaining 3 away points is much more difficult.

Such was the task for Ecuador in 2010 qualifying: win away from home to recover 10 points lost at home.The losses were to Venezuela and Uruguay and the ties against Colombia, Brazil and Paraguay. During the qualification process for 2006 Ecuador did not lose a single match at home, thus helping them get the necessary points to advance to that tournament.

The other key issue with winning at home is the direct rivals. Colombia is one of three at the moment, along with Chile and Venezuela due to points and projected status. Peru and Bolivia are having a difficult time at the moment, as is Paraguay. Argentina and Uruguay are almost a given to qualify due to recent results and history. So the fact that all 3 points were retained from Colombia means that Ecuador has the chance to take away points in Bogota when the return leg takes place next year.

Securing points at home against Chile is a top priority at the moment, although wins versus Uruguay and/or Argentina will also help the chances. In the past, wins against Argentina and Brazil at home were seen as pathways to the World Cup. These days these results are more achievable and, in fact, are key in augmenting point status.

Aside from all the points talk here is the fact that playing in front of their countrymen is the ultimate satisfaction for a player. Antonio Valencia of Manchester United thanked the team and the stadium and the country after the win. He may be a world class player but he will never forget what it's like to play at home. All in attendance are united in one chant "Ecuador, Ecuador, Ecuador." This is difficult in America but commonplace elsewhere and it should be treasured. How nice is it when a full stadium erupts for a team's goal? That's how it felt when Benitez scored against Colombia: a massive GOOOOLLL from the stands of the Atahualpa to the Melecon 2000 in Guayaquil and all around the world where Ecuadorians reside. Well done.

Clark Returns: USA defeats Venezuela in friendly

Photo credit: USA Today

A forgettable match for non-die-hard fans. A moment of redemption for a USA original: Ricardo Clark. We may remember him from the World Cup 2010 round of 16 game between USA and Ghana. In that match, an early yellow card for Clark meant he had to be restrained in tackles later in the half. This allowed for Ghana's first goal, as he was out-muscled by Boateng. But today he scored a last-gasp goal in the 97th minute in his first match since that fateful day.

Clark wasn't the lone bright spot today. Geoff Cameron was especially impressive in defense. Feilhaber also enjoyed a good showing and expressed why he should still be in the conversation for the US midfield. Graham Zusi and Brek Shea had their moments, with the latter displaying sporadic instances of brilliance.

In the attack, Wondolowski showed why he may well be on his way to becoming a supersub. He may not be as fast as Agudelo or Altidore or be a possession player like Ching, but he has a good instinct in the penalty area. He was close on more than one occasion, and if it hadn't been for the Venezuelan goalkeeper, Wondo may have scored the game-winner. We didn't however, get a longer look at CJ Sapong. Bunbury did well but had extended periods in which he did not see the ball.

Not much else can be said about the defense or the defensive midfield. Jones did well in his outing as a captain and the yellow card let us know that yes, he's still being Jermaine Jones. Venezuela hardly tested Hamid so we didn't get to see why Klinsmann holds the DC goalkeeper with such high regard.

Player Ratings:

Hamid..................6
Parkhurst.............6
Cameron..............7
Pearce...................6
De la Garza..........6.5
Jones..................6.5
Shea....................7
Zusi.....................6.5
Larentowicz........6.5
Feilhaber............7
Bunbury..............6.5

Subs: Wondolowski (7.5), Sapong (6), Evans (6), Loyd (6), Clark (7.5)

Ecuador's 2014 qualification campaign in the absence of Brazil

Photo credit: Yahoo Sport

How does a field of 10 teams qualifying to the 2014 react when the number is reduced to 9. Back in the day when groups were the norm it was easy. Five and four per group. Top two qualify from each. However, those were World Cups with only 24 teams. Now there are 32 and the South American qualifiers are 4 + 1 an interconference play-in. Brazil is the host for 2014 and yet the field of Conmebol teams is not reduced. This raises the possibility that teams such as Ecuador may have a better chance in qualifying.

Things have changed in South America, however. This past summer's Copa America showed us that Venezuela can beat Chile and that Argentina can be defeated at home. The rise (and confirmation) of Uruguay as a world class team also changes the landscape.

At one point, having Brazil in the preliminaries meant your mid-table team could do without 6 points and that claiming 1 or 3 out of it put you ahead of the competition. How does the math change? More level ground? These days, your jersey color is no longer an appropriate measure of greatness. There should not be "winnable" or "unwinnable" matches.

Where does Ecuador fit in all of this? Right now, they are a bit of an underdog and this is a good thing. They were an underdog when qualifiers for 2002 got underway. Winning at home versus Venezuela was a necessary first step. Impressing against Brazil and Paraguay was another. And yet, the other key component of that squad, and even of the 2006 squad, was that most players in the team were part of the local league. This meant more cohesiveness, familiarity and teamwork.

The above was especially true for the defense. Reasco, Hurtado, de la Cruz, Espinoza were all more or less within the same city until after 2002. The midfield also was somewhat local with Obregon and Mendez playing for the same team. Today, the midfield is as it was for the 2010 qualifiers: scattered. The forwards are different, they are mostly based in Mexico.

The local defense (except for Walter Ayovi) will be an important weapon that can also serve as a double-edged sword. The players called up for Friday's game in Quito has individuals with less than 15 caps. How will they react to the rigors of international play? If they stay true to their roots from 2002 and 2006, it will be about intimidation and physicality to keep the Atahualpa intact and without losses. Home field advantage will be key and defenders need to keep this in mind.

The midfield will need to project their considerable international experience to control the ball and disrupt the opposing team's game plan. Valencia will need to act like he's playing for Manchester United. Noboa and Montero will have to show why they play in Europe. Mendez and Castillo will need to provide the steadiness of experience.

For the forwards it's a different tale altogether. There is no more Agustin Delgado. No more Ivan Kaviedes. No more Carlos Tenorio. No Caicedo, at least for the first match. Christian Benitez is our go-to striker and he will need to be fed well by whomever accompanies him. Perhaps a withdrawn forward formation will work best to take advantage of Valencia and Montero's runs along the flanks. Joffre Guerron is an intriguing posibility but so is Arroyo (also capable of midfield work) and Jamie Ayovi (speed). I have yet to see Suarez in action.

It' a simple plan. Use the crowd. Use the local players. Protect your house and enjoy the game. That's why we are your fans.

Falling Stars: Brazil and Chile exit the Copa America

Photo credit: AP

No Argentina in the semifinals due to a penalty kick decision versus Uruguay. Okay. It happens. It's Uruguay, the 4th place team from the 2010 World Cup. Colombia gets upset in the quarterfinals by Peru. Big surprise but, again, it happens. But Chile loses to Venezuela? And Brazil exits prematurely in penalty kicks against Paraguay? Okay, now we're onto something.

Craziness. Plain and simple. But give credit to the "smaller nations" of South America. Peru has been in the sidelines for decades. It's about time they rekindle their 1970s form. Then there is Venezuela. The country heavily favors baseball over any other sport. Same goes for the US, but this is South America, football continent. And yet, if you look at the different players in this Venezuela side you come across names like Cichero (Newell's, Argentina), Arango (B. Moenchengladbach, German Bundesliga), Vizcarrondo (Once Caldas, Colombia), Giancarlo Maldonado (Atlante, Mexico). These are quality players in good leagues. They are bound to have good fortune in international tournaments.

The question then becomes: is parity that much closer in South America? Do big teams like Argentina and Brazil still exist? The answer is yes and no. Yes, because these teams have stars like Messi, Robinho, Neymar, Huguain. No, because their winning formula can no longer be intimidation due to name. Bolivia will find a way to close spaces on Messi if they man-mark him. Argentina becomes just another team with big stars. Brazil can have goal leads in their games erased by poor goalkeeping and spotty defending in a tournament that they feel they already own. Not anymore. Big names in the defense don't mean much if the players don't confront a game in a professional manner. This is true international football. The opposing squads no longer fear the "big teams" because they have their own "big players." It's a new kind of mano-a-mano.

And what of Chile? Once Argentina and Brazil went down, many of us out there thought this might be Chile's tournament to win. But the Suazo - Sanchez tandem couldn't score more than 1 goal on Venezuela. And the "vinotinto" found a way to score two. Just like that.

It's wide open now. Even though critics like Andres Cantor may feel the current top 4 in South America aren't worthy candidates to the title, it's clear to say the he, along with most of us in soccer world, have been taught a lesson. Respect. Plain and simple.

No Rueda: Ecuador struggles in the Copa America

Photo credit: AP

This is supposed to be the new Ecuador. A mix of young talent and the old vanguard. Speed and experience. But they have fallen short. Again. There's a saying in Ecuador: "jugamos como nunca pero perdimos como simpre." Which means "we played our best but lost like always." It's a stigma from the days before the 2002 World Cup qualification. A soccer nation with potential but disappointment. Should it still be like this?

Today's loss to Venezuela was more of the same. Lack of finishing touch, lax defense and missing players, most notably Antonio Valencia. The Manchester United stalwart was injured in the 0-0 tie with Paraguay and couldn't take part in today's match. But there are a few interesting names left off this team completely: Jefferson Montero, Fernando Guerrero and Joffre Guerron. These are young players, yes, but they play for important teams and are capable of special things with the ball at their feet. It's difficult to watch a match in which Christian Benitez has to come back for the ball and where Walter Ayovi has to play defense and be the creative force behind the team.

There is a certain new paternity that Venezuela has on Ecuador. Venezuela? Really? Yes. Twice they beat Ecuador in the 2010 qualifiers. Just one of those matches cost the qualification as Ecuador was behind Uruguay by just a solitary point at the end.

So is Reinaldo Rueda to blame? Ecuafutbol? The players? Possibly the first two. This is a talented squad that only needs a little nudging in the right direction to reclaim its place in the top five of South America. But right now the ball isn't rolling. And that's what Reinaldo Rueda's last name means: rolling. Can Ecuador beat Brazil? The Cariocas have tied twice already in this tournament. I find it hard to believe they will do so again. Until then, Ecuadorians will keep dreaming about the magic of 2002 and 2006 with no clear way forward. Not yet.

Too big to fail: The 2011 Copa America

Nearly a billion dollars worth of investment. Probably more. That's what South American players currently taking part in Conmebol's Copa America are worth. Messi? Probably $100 million. Neymar? Asking price of $50 million? And yet, for all their might, promise, prowess and skill, they still could not overcome the region's two weakest teams: Bolivia and Venezuela.

So is too big to fail really true when it comes to South American giants Brazil and Argentina? Well, unless the past couple of days were a particular fluke, it seems even great teams are vulnerable. And why not? On paper at least, Argentina is much weaker defensively. Their best defense is a good offense (pardon the cliche). In the back line is the aging Zanetti and the seldom-used Gabriel Milito. For Brazil there is no key number 10 right now. No Ronaldinho or Kaka. It is Pato and Neymar with Robinho calling the shots. Hopefully Neymar can do more than he did today because the Cariocas came out flat.

The other hopefuls in this tournament are Paraguay, Uruguay and Chile. The latter two have yet to play. Uruguay has a deep squad fresh off their 4th place finish at World Cup 2010. Chile has no Bielsa this time they have their ace in Udinese's Alexis Sanchez along with the always-dangerous Suazo.

Further down the line is a third group: Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia and Venezuela. In no particular order. You might argue that Ecuador and Colombia should be in the second tier but their form in recent years relegate them to this side of the table. Of particular interest is the Caicedo-Benitez tandem Ecuador has and the Falcao-Rodallega from Colombia. Invitees Mexico and Costa Rica are, by Concacaf rules, allowed to bring their U-22 squads with up to 5 overage players. The idea being that this would serve as preparation for the Olympics 2012 qualifiers.

So why the low scores? If anything that last year's World Cup taught us is that the first game tends to be overly defensive, disappointingly speculative and low scoring. It's not for lack of trying. Indeed, Argentina had their share of chances on Bolivia yesterday but the Altiplano team came up big with solid defense and by deconstructing the final pass from Messi. For Brazil it was a lack of ideas and group play. Venezuela countered by employing Bolivia's scheme. Crowd the middle of the pitch, close up the spaces for the short passes and play the counter.

Neymar and Messi can be contained for only so long. Difference-makers like these are keen on small spaces to play the ball for a lethal shot or pass. They have the fantasy that we love to watch. The jogo bonito and the classic 10. This is why we pay so much to see them. This is why, after the first set of games are done, they will be nearly unbeatable. This is why they are too big to fail.

Ecuador vs Argentina: All is not lost yet