Atahualpa remains the key as Ecuador advances to the World Cup

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For several months late last year and during the spring of this year it seemed like Ecuador could do no wrong in its World Cup qualifying campaign. Goleadas over Paraguay and impressive ties away to Venezuela and Uruguay. Every game at home they won. And then came a low. A tie versus Argentina at home and a loss at Peru and a tie away at Bolivia. Usually these games meant 9 points.

It was the Caicedo-Benitez tandem that gave Ecuador the dream of reaching its third ever World Cup. But suddenly we saw that this wasn't an invincible Ecuador. Dropping a game at Peru for the first time in five World Cup cycles gave Ecuadorians a scare that they might not make it. Then came the tragic loss of Christian Benitez.

But after the letdown of the Bolivia game in La Paz came one more chance to win at home at the Atahualpa. And that's what did it for Ecuador. The Uruguay game has come to signify the ultimate key to the World Cup for Ecuador. It was there that a Kaviedes goal in 2001 sealed their first ever entry into the tournament and it was there last Friday that Jefferson Montero put Ecuador in a position where the worst they could do was a continental playoff versus Jordan.

Ecuador ran all over all night versus the Charruas and Luis Suarez and Edison Cavani attacked but eventually subsided and rescinded control to the Ecuador defense. Was it the altitude?

Invariably, one has to give some credit to the altitude when it comes to Ecuador's impressive streak at home: 7 wins and 1 tie and zero losses. But one should say the same for Bolivia, correct? And yet the Altiplano crew cannot win at home and gets pummeled away. So yes, we have to give credit to an Ecuador futbol that has ascended leaps and bounds in the last couple of decades.

From the days of Dusan Draskovic to the rise of the Colombian guard in charge of the national team: from Maturana, who got the country ever so close to 1998, to Hernan Dario Gomez, the man that gave the country its ultimate wish in reaching Korea/Japan 2002, to Luis Fernando Suarez, who brought Ecuador to the round of 16 at Germany 2006. It was a decade-long progression that came to a stop with Suarez's second round and Sixto Vizuete. But Reinaldo Rueda picked up where Suarez left off in 2006 and Ecuador earned the right to own their house and defend their status as a South American force.

Is Ecuador a true contender? Hard to imagine it at this point. Results are based on playing in neutral venues in big tournaments and the country has been downright horrid in the Copa America. But one thing is clear, Estadio Atahualpa and Quito are fortresses that the team has guarded zealously and where players have shown all the emotion, athleticism and fantasy that make for great teams. In qualifiers it's a simple formula: win your home games and snatch a few points abroad.

Today the team lost away to Chile 1-2, but the goals collected in Quito along the way set them apart from Uruguay to clinch the fourth and final spot for Conmebol. Uruguay will now face Jordan in the continental playoffs and Ecuador is now in Brazil 2014--and deservedly so. Caicedo sealed it with a goal in Santiago, keeping the goal differential unreachable for Uruguay. 

For over two years the crowds in Quito watched the team win and score and protect their stadium. They made it clear that Ecuador is a talented soccer country and has been so for the last 16 years, but the extra catalyst is undoubtedly the 2700 meters all visitors must climb to defeat Ecuador at the Atahualpa.

Ecuador on its way to World Cup 2014

Photo credit: AP

At the close of the first half of the marathonic, 16-game tournament in World Cup qualifying, Ecuador found itself in second place, behind only Argentina. The Atahualpa Stadium is a fortress once more and the team is 5 for 5 so far, totaling 15 points. Additionally, the team has secured two points abroad: ties to Venezuela and Uruguay. The losses were to last-place Paraguay and Argentina.

Although on the surface the qualification chances may seem high, important obstacles remain. The second half of qualifying has stronger visiting teams like Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay. Ecuador managed positive results in the 2002 and 2006 qualifiers: wins versus Argentina and Paraguay and ties versus Uruguay. The same could not be said for the failed qualification for 2010: tie to Paraguay and loss to Uruguay. The key will be the game against Paraguay in March, where a win could put the team at 20 points and much closer to making the competition.

The real shift comes from winning abroad to weaker teams like Peru and Bolivia. For the last three qualification cycles, Ecuador has won 6 points away from home from both teams. This, thus, is the real key to the qualifiers. At 26 points, a win or tie versus Argentina and Uruguay at the Atahualpa would all but assure the team of making it to Brazil.

As good as the first act of qualifying has looked, it is not a reflection of the true possible outcomes. Narrow wins against Colombia and Bolivia, as well as losses at Argentina and especially Paraguay, show that the team remains vulnerable and sometimes hangs on thanks to a penalty kick. Antonio Valencia, Christian Benitez and Felipe Caicedo will need to come up big in those away games and they will also need to keep their heads cool so as not to be suspended for key matches.

Ecuador has displayed clean, speedy attack with intricate passing and glorious lofted balls from Valencia. The center of the pitch has been well managed so far and the attackers are better this time around than 2010. There may not be a Tin Delgado here but Caicedo and Benitez pack a dangerous one-two punch. The back line, however, is prone to mishaps and the center backs tend to leave a good deal of open space between them when the fullbacks engage in the attack.

There are always plenty of surprises in qualifying and this time Ecuador hopes to become one of them by advancing in a more prominent role. Chile, Colombia and Uruguay are the direct rivals this time around, with Venezuela having increasingly better chances. Stealing points away from these teams is most important, as is keeping the Atahualpa a fortress to get a possible 9 more points at home.

Points at home: Ecuador - Colombia

World Cup Qualifying is all about points. It doesn't matter how you get them, be it by a high score or a 1-0. It's also important to win, always win, at home. Ecuador continued with this in today's match versus Colombia in Quito as "Chucho" Benitez's header gave the home side the win. 

Maintaining a flawless record at home can be nearly impossible even for teams like Brazil and Argentina. With a marathon of 18 games that are spread over a 2.5 year period it's easy to let 2 to 4 points go at home through ties. This, however, is the major and most fundamental difference: these points should be recovered in away matches. It's also key to not lose at home, for regaining 3 away points is much more difficult.

Such was the task for Ecuador in 2010 qualifying: win away from home to recover 10 points lost at home.The losses were to Venezuela and Uruguay and the ties against Colombia, Brazil and Paraguay. During the qualification process for 2006 Ecuador did not lose a single match at home, thus helping them get the necessary points to advance to that tournament.

The other key issue with winning at home is the direct rivals. Colombia is one of three at the moment, along with Chile and Venezuela due to points and projected status. Peru and Bolivia are having a difficult time at the moment, as is Paraguay. Argentina and Uruguay are almost a given to qualify due to recent results and history. So the fact that all 3 points were retained from Colombia means that Ecuador has the chance to take away points in Bogota when the return leg takes place next year.

Securing points at home against Chile is a top priority at the moment, although wins versus Uruguay and/or Argentina will also help the chances. In the past, wins against Argentina and Brazil at home were seen as pathways to the World Cup. These days these results are more achievable and, in fact, are key in augmenting point status.

Aside from all the points talk here is the fact that playing in front of their countrymen is the ultimate satisfaction for a player. Antonio Valencia of Manchester United thanked the team and the stadium and the country after the win. He may be a world class player but he will never forget what it's like to play at home. All in attendance are united in one chant "Ecuador, Ecuador, Ecuador." This is difficult in America but commonplace elsewhere and it should be treasured. How nice is it when a full stadium erupts for a team's goal? That's how it felt when Benitez scored against Colombia: a massive GOOOOLLL from the stands of the Atahualpa to the Melecon 2000 in Guayaquil and all around the world where Ecuadorians reside. Well done.

Ecuador's 2014 qualification campaign in the absence of Brazil

Photo credit: Yahoo Sport

How does a field of 10 teams qualifying to the 2014 react when the number is reduced to 9. Back in the day when groups were the norm it was easy. Five and four per group. Top two qualify from each. However, those were World Cups with only 24 teams. Now there are 32 and the South American qualifiers are 4 + 1 an interconference play-in. Brazil is the host for 2014 and yet the field of Conmebol teams is not reduced. This raises the possibility that teams such as Ecuador may have a better chance in qualifying.

Things have changed in South America, however. This past summer's Copa America showed us that Venezuela can beat Chile and that Argentina can be defeated at home. The rise (and confirmation) of Uruguay as a world class team also changes the landscape.

At one point, having Brazil in the preliminaries meant your mid-table team could do without 6 points and that claiming 1 or 3 out of it put you ahead of the competition. How does the math change? More level ground? These days, your jersey color is no longer an appropriate measure of greatness. There should not be "winnable" or "unwinnable" matches.

Where does Ecuador fit in all of this? Right now, they are a bit of an underdog and this is a good thing. They were an underdog when qualifiers for 2002 got underway. Winning at home versus Venezuela was a necessary first step. Impressing against Brazil and Paraguay was another. And yet, the other key component of that squad, and even of the 2006 squad, was that most players in the team were part of the local league. This meant more cohesiveness, familiarity and teamwork.

The above was especially true for the defense. Reasco, Hurtado, de la Cruz, Espinoza were all more or less within the same city until after 2002. The midfield also was somewhat local with Obregon and Mendez playing for the same team. Today, the midfield is as it was for the 2010 qualifiers: scattered. The forwards are different, they are mostly based in Mexico.

The local defense (except for Walter Ayovi) will be an important weapon that can also serve as a double-edged sword. The players called up for Friday's game in Quito has individuals with less than 15 caps. How will they react to the rigors of international play? If they stay true to their roots from 2002 and 2006, it will be about intimidation and physicality to keep the Atahualpa intact and without losses. Home field advantage will be key and defenders need to keep this in mind.

The midfield will need to project their considerable international experience to control the ball and disrupt the opposing team's game plan. Valencia will need to act like he's playing for Manchester United. Noboa and Montero will have to show why they play in Europe. Mendez and Castillo will need to provide the steadiness of experience.

For the forwards it's a different tale altogether. There is no more Agustin Delgado. No more Ivan Kaviedes. No more Carlos Tenorio. No Caicedo, at least for the first match. Christian Benitez is our go-to striker and he will need to be fed well by whomever accompanies him. Perhaps a withdrawn forward formation will work best to take advantage of Valencia and Montero's runs along the flanks. Joffre Guerron is an intriguing posibility but so is Arroyo (also capable of midfield work) and Jamie Ayovi (speed). I have yet to see Suarez in action.

It' a simple plan. Use the crowd. Use the local players. Protect your house and enjoy the game. That's why we are your fans.