Missing points: How Ecuador will find it tough to reach the World Cup

A few months ago it seemed almost certain that the Ecuador national soccer team would be at Brazil 2014. Two games later that is no longer the case. Where in the past 4 rounds of qualifiers dating back to 1998, points in Peru had been all but assured, this time was different. Zero points in June. And where every single match at the Atahualpa had yielded 3 points, Argentina stole 2 away.

So now the team is 5 points away from the World Cup. Right now they would have 26 points and would be one win away from the tournament. As it stands now, a win at Bolivia next week and a win at home versus Uruguay in the last home game is required to enter the tournament.

Chile is likely to surpass Ecuador today as they face Venezuela at home. "La Roja" is particularly dangerous with players like Alexis Sanchez and Humberto Suazo while Venezuela, an upstart in recent years, is likely not strong enough to steal points away in Santiago. With a win by the Chileans, Ecuador will go down to fourth place. 

Further complicating things is Uruguay. Luis Suarez returns to the squad and they can certainly take all 3 points away from Peru today. A game versus Colombia might also yield points and a total of 6 points will put them ahead of Ecuador by Tuesday if the Ecuadorians are unable to get any of the 6 or even 1 point in the next two games. Same would happen if Venezuela wins 6 points.

Let's be clear. Bolivia are out already, even if the highly-unlikely situation in which they win their next four games. Peru, at 14, has a better chance but still would need a serious run for all 12 points. It becomes a matter of mathematics at this point if Ecuador do not win any points in the next couple of games. A win versus Uruguay in October would be a must and even that might not be enough if the "Charruas" win all six points this week and still have another game in hand.

So what does Ecuador have to make this happen? Some pride and good quality for sure. Felipe Caicedo is on board, as is Valencia, Rojas, Mina, Montero and Walter Ayovi. How Reinaldo Rueda will line up his squad and defensive/offensive posture is up in the air. Ball possession has been key but early game management has haunted this team of late. 

The absence of Chucho Benitez is key now. The recent, painful loss of the Ecuador ace could also be used as a way to rile up the national team. To play for their fallen comrade. To make it to the tournament in his honor after he gave so much to the country and the team. So, play for him, Ecuador. Play for love.

Ecuador on its way to World Cup 2014

Photo credit: AP

At the close of the first half of the marathonic, 16-game tournament in World Cup qualifying, Ecuador found itself in second place, behind only Argentina. The Atahualpa Stadium is a fortress once more and the team is 5 for 5 so far, totaling 15 points. Additionally, the team has secured two points abroad: ties to Venezuela and Uruguay. The losses were to last-place Paraguay and Argentina.

Although on the surface the qualification chances may seem high, important obstacles remain. The second half of qualifying has stronger visiting teams like Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay. Ecuador managed positive results in the 2002 and 2006 qualifiers: wins versus Argentina and Paraguay and ties versus Uruguay. The same could not be said for the failed qualification for 2010: tie to Paraguay and loss to Uruguay. The key will be the game against Paraguay in March, where a win could put the team at 20 points and much closer to making the competition.

The real shift comes from winning abroad to weaker teams like Peru and Bolivia. For the last three qualification cycles, Ecuador has won 6 points away from home from both teams. This, thus, is the real key to the qualifiers. At 26 points, a win or tie versus Argentina and Uruguay at the Atahualpa would all but assure the team of making it to Brazil.

As good as the first act of qualifying has looked, it is not a reflection of the true possible outcomes. Narrow wins against Colombia and Bolivia, as well as losses at Argentina and especially Paraguay, show that the team remains vulnerable and sometimes hangs on thanks to a penalty kick. Antonio Valencia, Christian Benitez and Felipe Caicedo will need to come up big in those away games and they will also need to keep their heads cool so as not to be suspended for key matches.

Ecuador has displayed clean, speedy attack with intricate passing and glorious lofted balls from Valencia. The center of the pitch has been well managed so far and the attackers are better this time around than 2010. There may not be a Tin Delgado here but Caicedo and Benitez pack a dangerous one-two punch. The back line, however, is prone to mishaps and the center backs tend to leave a good deal of open space between them when the fullbacks engage in the attack.

There are always plenty of surprises in qualifying and this time Ecuador hopes to become one of them by advancing in a more prominent role. Chile, Colombia and Uruguay are the direct rivals this time around, with Venezuela having increasingly better chances. Stealing points away from these teams is most important, as is keeping the Atahualpa a fortress to get a possible 9 more points at home.

Too big to fail: The 2011 Copa America

Nearly a billion dollars worth of investment. Probably more. That's what South American players currently taking part in Conmebol's Copa America are worth. Messi? Probably $100 million. Neymar? Asking price of $50 million? And yet, for all their might, promise, prowess and skill, they still could not overcome the region's two weakest teams: Bolivia and Venezuela.

So is too big to fail really true when it comes to South American giants Brazil and Argentina? Well, unless the past couple of days were a particular fluke, it seems even great teams are vulnerable. And why not? On paper at least, Argentina is much weaker defensively. Their best defense is a good offense (pardon the cliche). In the back line is the aging Zanetti and the seldom-used Gabriel Milito. For Brazil there is no key number 10 right now. No Ronaldinho or Kaka. It is Pato and Neymar with Robinho calling the shots. Hopefully Neymar can do more than he did today because the Cariocas came out flat.

The other hopefuls in this tournament are Paraguay, Uruguay and Chile. The latter two have yet to play. Uruguay has a deep squad fresh off their 4th place finish at World Cup 2010. Chile has no Bielsa this time they have their ace in Udinese's Alexis Sanchez along with the always-dangerous Suazo.

Further down the line is a third group: Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, Bolivia and Venezuela. In no particular order. You might argue that Ecuador and Colombia should be in the second tier but their form in recent years relegate them to this side of the table. Of particular interest is the Caicedo-Benitez tandem Ecuador has and the Falcao-Rodallega from Colombia. Invitees Mexico and Costa Rica are, by Concacaf rules, allowed to bring their U-22 squads with up to 5 overage players. The idea being that this would serve as preparation for the Olympics 2012 qualifiers.

So why the low scores? If anything that last year's World Cup taught us is that the first game tends to be overly defensive, disappointingly speculative and low scoring. It's not for lack of trying. Indeed, Argentina had their share of chances on Bolivia yesterday but the Altiplano team came up big with solid defense and by deconstructing the final pass from Messi. For Brazil it was a lack of ideas and group play. Venezuela countered by employing Bolivia's scheme. Crowd the middle of the pitch, close up the spaces for the short passes and play the counter.

Neymar and Messi can be contained for only so long. Difference-makers like these are keen on small spaces to play the ball for a lethal shot or pass. They have the fantasy that we love to watch. The jogo bonito and the classic 10. This is why we pay so much to see them. This is why, after the first set of games are done, they will be nearly unbeatable. This is why they are too big to fail.