Facing Belgium is the real next step for US Soccer

Photo: ronaldo7.net

Beat Ghana, check. Tie or beat Portugal, check. Stand up to Germany, check. Team USA did what was necessary to get out of the group. Now comes the real test. A real "final," so to speak, for the USMNT: Belgium.

The truth is that Klinsmann trained his crew for the group stage. They had to earn points against the best African side in the world. No offense to Nigeria or Algeria, but the change-up, positioning and speed of play is much better for Ghana. USA also nearly defeated a wounded Portugal and might even have tied Germany.

Landon Donovan put it well when he was asked about the exceptionalism of this USMNT. Sometimes things just go right, he insisted. You score in injury time (vs Algeria in 2010), you advance out of group stage by virtue of other scores (2002, 2014). The "breakthrough" in 2002 was defeating heavily-favored Portugal. The match against Mexico was icing on the cake. Germany in the 2002 quarterfinals was just that: Germany.

Tomorrow's test is completely different. USA was handed one of the more unpredictable and difficult sides in this World Cup when they finished second in the "group of death." This Belgian squad has the likes of Hazard, Kompany, Lukaku, Dembele, Fellaini, Mirallas, Courtois, Januzaj, Vermaelen. If they sound familiar it's because you know soccer and you know the teams they play for. Top teams like Chelsea, Manchester United, Everton. 

But Belgium is also very young, with its 11 starters averaging less than 25 years old. Also, only one player has participated in a World Cup. For USA, we have Bradley, Dempsey, Howard and Beasley from the starting lineup that know how it works.

Even so, Belgium was ranked in the top right and that is why they got to be a top-seeded team and were given a "group of life," of sorts, along with Russia, Algeria and South Korea. They are one of the "top" European teams still in contention and they are better than others like Greece or Switzerland.

This is why Team USA could take the true "next step" by earning a place in the quarterfinals against a true contender, regardless of how lackluster the Belgians' performance has been so far. Is it a bridge too far? Most of us thought the group stage was and they proved us wrong.

The Rise of Mark Geiger in World Football

Photo: CHRISTOPHE SIMON/AFP/Getty Images

As the Round of 16 begins in the Brazil 2014 World Cup, there is another American breakthrough. It's not the fact that the USMNT made it to the second round in two consecutive World Cups, or that they escape the Group of Death. It's Mark Geiger, the American referee from Major League Soccer. Today he became the first American to get assigned to a Round of 16 match: France-Nigeria.

So we must give credit to him for his poise in the various games he has already refereed in this World Cup: Colombia-Greece and Spain-Chile. The latter one was particularly important given its serious implications in this tournament, i.e. Spain getting knocked out.

Geiger has had a steady rise through the ranks of American soccer: from being a math teacher in New Jersey to his time in the A-League in 2002 to MLS in 2004, to getting FIFA-listed in 2008, to the London Olympics in 2012, and now at the 2014 World Cup. 

He will now dictate how one of the marquee teams, France, conducts its business on the pitch alongside the African champions, Nigeria. The French have a tendency to commit certain egregious offenses: Zidane's headbutt in Germany 2006 and Henry's handball in qualifiers, 2009. Nigeria can get physical. It will not be easy for Geiger.

Let's celebrate this latest accomplishment in the development of American soccer. We're not only showing the world we know how to play. We're also showing the world we know how to manage a match in the most difficult international stage: the World Cup.

Congratulations, Mark Geiger. Hopefully we'll see more of you later in the tournament.

Saved by Math: USA through to the round of 16

Taylor Twellman said it. Today's 0-1 loss to Germany in the final game of Group G in World Cup 2014 felt a lot like 2002. Why? The Americans were saved by math and Klinsmann knows how to work the problem out.

As I put it in a previous post. A "small" team has to try to go for 4 points and a decent goal differential in order to go through. USA came into the game with 4 points while Ghana and Portugal had 1. Ghana had -1 goal differential and Portugal -4. 

A loss to Germany was highly probable. They have not been eliminated at the group stage since 1954 and they have one of the most talented sides in the World Cup. Klinsmann knew it and acted accordingly. A win versus Ghana was a must. Done. At least a point versus Portugal was crucial. They almost won. The rest was just math, as Portugal was undone in the first game and could not defeat Team USA in their second outing.

For the players it comes down to Jermaine Jones being the absolute MVP in this tournament for the Americans and Howard showing why he's one of the top 5 goalkeepers in the world. Dempsey has partly made up for Altidore but the New Jersey product will be required versus a highly talented Belgian side.

Some deltas include Michael Bradley's subpar performances. This is very disconcerting considering his pedigree as a player, but Jones has made up for it. Beasley, Fabian Johnson and Matt Besler have also played their best, as did Omar Gonzalez in his first start today. 

Now anything is possible. Belgium is an entirely different team. They will be difficult for the USA in terms of their speed and athleticism and their highly-skilled midfielders. Think of them as a mix of Germany and Portugal. It's no wonder some dub them the dark horses of the tournament. In this World Cup, however, all logic has gone out the window.

And let's say it: We Believe.

How Team USA could still be ousted by Ghana in Brazil 2014

Photo credit: Getty Images

Americans love drama and there's nothing like what the Germany-USA match has to offer, plus the simultaneous Ghana-Portugal match. For those of you that thought our Ghana-World Cup nightmares had been exorcised, think again. There is still a way that Ghana can go through and oust the Americans in the process.

The standings

Group G

#	Country	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS
1	Germany	2	1	1	0	6	2	4	4
2	United States	2	1	1	0	4	3	1	4
3	Ghana	2	0	1	1	3	4	-1	1
4	Portugal	2	0	1	1	2	6	-4	1

It's simple. USA wins and they're through. USA ties and they're through. But it's never simple at the World Cup.

With Germany at 4 points and +4 goal differential, it will take a monumental takedown by Team USA to knock the three-times champions out. That, coupled with another goal-fest by Ghana. Highly unlikely but this tournament has been odd.

If Portugal manages to take down Ghana by 3 goals and USA also loses by 3 then Cristiano Ronaldo and company go through and the megastar lives another day.

The Manaus Factor
Fact. To date, every single team that has played in Manaus has gone on to lose their following match. That would mean that both Portugal and USA will come out with zero points from their final Group G games.

Ghana Returns
The Ghanaians are no pushovers. They controlled the game versus the Americans and probably deserved better. They showed why in the second game against the Germans. They almost won that game and it set up a nightmare scenario for their now-eternal World Cup nemesis: USA.

If Ghana wins by two goals and USA loses by one goal the Africans will go through. Plain math. It would be a heartbreak for a hard-working American team and the third time they knocked the USMNT out of the World Cup. First it was directly with a win in group play, second was in the round of 16. This time via math.

Hold your breath.

When Suarez bites it damages the game

Photo credit: Getty Images

Luis Suarez did the unthinkable. Again. He bit Giorgio Chiellini on the shoulder in today's deciding match in group C between Uruguay and England. But where does this leave him, FIFA, and the game of soccer?

For Suarez this should be no coincidence. In 2010 he bit PSV Eindhoven's Otman Bakkal when playing for Ajax of the Dutch Eridivisie. In 2013 he bit Chelsea's Ivanovic when playing for Liverpool FC of the English Premier League.

Clearly, the man is disturbed. Such a childish, hurtful and plain disgusting gesture lies outside of professional sports. Just ask Mike Tyson. Is this what we want to show the quarter-billion children watching this World Cup? These are kids looking up at role models. What should we tell them when Suarez commits such an act? It's certainly not part of the game.

The match ended in a 1-0 win in favor of Uruguay, with the lone goal coming a couple of minutes after the purported bite. Italy was down a man after Marchisio was ejected and had little to show for as they combated the well-poised Uruguayan defense. We can't credit the win to Suarez's bite, as Godin scored a perfect header to put the "Charruas" in front. Still, some measure of psychology has to work itself into the conversation.

Should FIFA act, it will likely be a suspension for Suarez. Maybe a ban for life from international competition. Why not? This is the third offense of this type.

Let's also not forget that most of Africa already harbors a deal of dislike for Suarez for his handball at the mouth of goal, with the goalkeeper already beaten, to deny Ghana the goal and the win. Ghana would have advanced to the 2010 semifinals, the first African team to do so. Instead, they settled for penalties and Gyan missed, sending Uruguay to their first semifinal since 1970. 

And also we should remember his racist remarks towards Manchester United's Patrice Evra, his suspension for this, and, once back, his refusal to shake Evra's hand. So, my friends, as much as I like to watch him score and play for club and country, I have to say this: time to let him go.

America's tie versus Portugal was always the plan

The truth is that a win versus Portugal was never meant to happen. As heartbreaking as the tie was, it was a just result for two teams that played as equals. Portugal needed the win to stay alive. USA needed it to seal their way through. A tie meant they both still had a chance.

The game was not lost. That's the most important take home message from the game in Manaus. In fact, a positive result, be it tie or win, was what Team USA was after from the beginning.

So for the novices in World Cup soccer, I will make this post simple. In a World Cup there are three types of team: the top team (I.e. Germany, Brazil, etc), the strong European team (ie Netherlands, Portugal), and the two other teams. These could be from any of the other confederations, i.e. Ghana and USA. 

The idea has always been to beat the weak team, steal a point from the strong European team and then wait to see what happens. For Costa Rica things panned out even better than they thought. Italy is always underwhelming in the group stage and England imploded. That Suarez was unable to play in the first game was a gift. Two wins and history made. That's what the World Cup is about.

Playing devil's advocate, however, we should mention today's global game. European teams are no longer what they used to be. Most teams from other confederations have a large number of players plying their trade in Europe, learning their style, adapting to their plays, and building a foundation.

So let's celebrate tonight's match for what it was. A dignified result for two teams that worked hard to win the game. Both teams controlled the ball well and both teams had their share of chances. This isn't 1966's Portugal and it isn't 2006's Team USA. Clint Dempsey showed up again and scored a would-be game-winner. It was only undone by the one moment of wisdom allowed to the reigning best player in the world: Cristiano Ronaldo. His cross thirty seconds from the end sealed the tie. 2-2.

US realities before Portugal

Photo credit: Time

When Jurgen Klinsmann was hired for the US national team position there was one request: do well at the World Cup. For most this would mean get out of the group stage. Wrong. Chances were that the US could end up in a group of death. And it did.

After US Soccer knew its rivals, Ghana, Portugal, Germany, in that order, the request changed: Beat Ghana. Why? History.

In 2006, the United States was ranked in the top 10 and Bruce Arena's men were poised for a better tournament than the quarterfinals in 2002. They lost 3-0 in the opening match to the Czech Republic, tied 1-1 with Italy and lost 2-1 against Ghana in a game briefly tied by Clint Dempsey's first World Cup goal.

In 2010 the United States were once again an underdog but were placed in the "group of life" along with England, new-comer Slovenia, and Algeria, in that order. A herculean effort gave a 1-1 tie against England, a come-from-behind 2-2 tie against Slovenia was another classic, capped by a Hollywood ending 1-0 win over Algeria thanks to an injury time goal by one Landon Donovan. The round of 16 pitted the Americans against Ghana and the African nation prevailed, once more, knocking Bob Bradley's team out of the tournament.

This is why Ghana was the priority for the Americans in 2014. This and the fact that both Germany and Portugal are top 10 teams. "Too tough," claimed commentator Alexi Lalas. Most of us knowledgeable soccer followers concurred.

Alexi Lalas had some words of encouragement yesterday following Michael Bradley's interview previewing Portugal. This Portuguese team is fighting for their lives without Coentrao and Pepe in the defense and Cristiano Ronaldo not 100%. A chance for a win.

But do not be fooled. This Portuguese team, despite a lopsided 4-0 loss to Germany, has quality all over it. From Nani to Meireles to Cristiano Ronaldo. They have years of experience in the World Cup with a top 4 finish in 2006

Portugal will come out to win. They will do so down the right side and exploit the spaces left for Ronaldo. Team USA has no Mertesacker, no Sami Khedira, no Jerome Boateng. This is the one game where everything will be on the line for the Americans. They must play for everything and they must play to win. That's where the spaces will open.

Against Ghana there were no spaces because Dempsey scored early and the team backed off. A gift and a curse, as the players themselves assured. Jermaine Jones will need an even bigger game, Beckermann will have to be stronger and Michael Bradley has to show up. Without Altidore there will be little hold-up up front so the attack must come up the middle, through Bradley.

In reality the chances are slim for the Americans today. They are just as banged-up as the Portuguese and will play in a high-humidity scenario that levels the chances for both sides in terms of environment. 

For Klinsmann and US Soccer the real goal was met. We did something we haven't done for two World Cups. We beat Ghana. This is a team looking to the future. Otherwise we would have Donovan in the 23. A win or a tie versus Portugal would conjure up memories of 2002. We are all allowed to dream.